SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 8/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6720/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6791 SUP 6640
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6749
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6655
DAILY MARKET STRUCUTRE - BALANCE 6741/6801
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6750/40 (SAME AS YESTERDAY)
DAILY RANGE RES 6822 SUP 6707
2 SIGMA RES 6880 SUP 6650
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: WINNING STREAK ENDS
7 October 2025 |
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
FICC and Equities
Market Overview:
- S&P 500: -0.38% closing at 6,714 with Market-on-Close (MOC) orders totaling $1.2 billion to buy.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): -0.55% at 24,840.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): -1.06% at 2,460.
- Dow Jones: -0.20% at 46,602.
- Volume: 20.9 billion shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges, above the year-to-date (YTD) daily average of 16.8 billion.
- Volatility Index (VIX): +5.5% at 17.28.
- WTI Crude Oil: +0.55% at $62.03.
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: -2 basis points at 4.13%.
- Gold: +0.70% at $4,004.
- DXY (Dollar Index): +0.53% at 98.62.
- Bitcoin: -2.5% at $122,138.
Key Highlights:
- The S&P 500’s seven-session winning streak ended with a modest decline, raising concerns over a potential economic slowdown.
- Cyclical vs. defensive sectors underperformed, with the basket now 4.5% below its September 18 highs.
- Market sentiment was weighed down by soft U.S. economic data (weaker ADP hiring, soft ISM internals) and concerns over the ongoing government shutdown.
Sector Performance:
- Technology: Oracle (ORCL) dropped on reports of weaker-than-expected cloud margins, dragging broader tech stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), Arista Networks (ANET), Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX).
- Consumer Discretionary: Retail underperformed, with names like Five Below (FIVE), Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) facing selling pressure. Feedback points to cautious consumer finance trends, positioning, and “just okay” September sales following a strong summer.
- Autonomous Driving: The autonomous vehicle group fell 3%, with Tesla (TSLA) down 4.5% after disappointing Model 3 pricing.
- Housing: Homebuilders continued to decline following recent downgrades.
Trading Activity:
- Overall Activity Levels: Rated 4/10, indicating subdued trading action.
- Institutional Flows: Long-only funds were net buyers (+$1 billion), focusing on macro products, while hedge funds were net sellers, particularly in staples, discretionary, and tech.
- Floor Activity: Finished +126 basis points to buy, above the 30-day average of +41 basis points.
Derivatives Market:
- Index volatility started slow but picked up after headlines about Oracle potentially facing issues with Nvidia chip rentals. Despite concerns about the AI trade, volatility reactions remained muted.
- Fixed-strike volatility declined beyond the 6-month horizon, with notable movement only in front-end options (October ATM volatility rose by about 1 point).
- Skew steepened, particularly in the front-end, indicating potential for volatility spikes if markets move lower. Dealer long gamma positioning may help contain significant downside unless further negative headlines emerge.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!